My personal assessment of East Bristol Liveable Neighbourhood trial scheme data (January 2026)

This is my attempt to summarise and assess the monitoring report (see https://www.bristol.gov.uk/files/ask-bristol/10460-ebln-monitoring-report-2025/file) for the East Bristol Liveable Neighbourhood trial scheme.

Before I summarise the data, let’s restate the aims of the scheme as defined in the monitoring strategy:

• to reduce traffic cutting through the Liveable Neighbourhood
• to boost active travel and public transport use
• to not significantly impact nearby roads

So let’s dig into the data and what it says.

• The volume of traffic has reduced and has not significantly impacted nearby (external/boundary) roads: On internal and external (boundary) roads, the volume of all motorised vehicles has gone down by 26 per cent on weekdays and by 21 per cent on weekends. On internal roads the decrease is 77 per cent on weekdays and 72 per cent on weekends. On external roads the decrease is 6 per cent on weekdays and 5 per cent on weekends.
• Walking has been boosted: Walking increased by 7 per cent on weekdays and 5 per cent on weekends. 
• Cycling has been boosted: Cycling volumes increased overall by 22 per cent on weekdays but did not go up overall at weekends. The volume of cycling on internal roads increased by 39 per cent on weekdays and 13 per cent on weekends, and it went up on external roads by 4 per cent on weekdays and went down by 12 per cent on external roads on weekends. Use of the Wesley Way cycle route increased by 60 per cent on weekdays and 24 per cent on weekends.
• Public transport has been boosted: The 5 and 16 buses (which run mainly through the EBLN area) have increased their patronage by 116% and all buses (41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 5, 16) which run through EBLN and boundary roads (e.g. Church Road) have seen a 5% increase in ridership.

In summary, the data shows that the trial scheme has achieved its aims in each of the three categories. 

This clearly suggests that simply removing the scheme in its entirety would not be a wise course of action (if you believe the scheme aims are desirable).

However, it is important to be clear that this does not mean that other data points do not give a more mixed picture or that the data shows there is less traffic on every single street. On the question of journey times and average speeds, there are some negative consequences for people driving cars.

• A mixed picture on average speeds and journey times: Average speeds and journey times at weekday peak times saw mixed results while weekends tended to see rising journey times. 
• A mixed picture on bus journey times: Bus journey times, including the 41, 42, 43, 44 and 45, showed a slight improvement along Church Road, but journey times for the number 5 bus increased by around one minute.
• A mixed picture on air quality: Early indications (there are only five months of provisional data for the trial) show that air quality has improved within the Liveable Neighbourhood but has worsened slightly on external roads where traffic has been diverted. (This needs longer term monitoring to judge the scheme’s impact as air quality is generally measured over longer periods because other factors can impact findings, such as the weather.)
• A small negative impact on emergency service average response times: There was a small impact on average response times for the emergency services, with the fire service showing an average increase of 30 seconds on a sample of journeys, the ambulance response times changing marginally, and police response times increasing on average by 18 seconds (but still within their target times).
• A major increase in vehicles on one specific road: Traffic on Great Western Lane increased by 288% on weekdays and 112% on weekends. In raw terms, this is over 1,000 extra vehicles on weekdays.

This is where the interpretation of the data comes in. I will give my perspective and my solutions for these and you are free to get in touch if you think there’s an alternative way of interpreting the five bullet points above.

Blackswarth Road is wholly in St George West, where I’m the councillor. I suspect it’s counterintuitive for many people, but it’s true to say that traffic volumes have decreased on this road (from 19,105 to 16,054 at the weekday peak), but journey times have increased.

This increase in journey times is a symptom partly of the intrinsic, constrained layout of the road network in this area (there were traffic queues prior to the EBLN implementation) but also because of the widely acknowledged issues with moving traffic through the Blackswarth Road/Chalks Road/Church Road junction.

These can be helped to some extent by the planned junction redesign (which will go ahead regardless of EBLN), but I’m pleased that in the interim that residents of my ward living between Avonvale Road and Blackswarth Road will be could be offered an exemption to the Pilemarsh bus gate to give them an alternative to queuing in traffic on Blackswarth Road – something that I have been pushing for. I don’t think the junction redesign will completely solve journey time delays on Blackswarth Road, but it’s the key measure that will make a dent in it and will mean residents will no longer have to make circuitous routes to get onto Church Road.

I would say that the increase in journey times on St Phillip’s Causeway is not such a problem as this is obviously a very wide road with much more capacity than the roads it is taking traffic from, so I wouldn’t suggest any remedial action at present. Equally, the very slight increase in average journey times for the 5 bus service is not something I would point at a current solution for, other than the general approach of the council to prioritise buses over cars as much as possible and to push for more bus operators to accept at the strategic level that we need two doors on every bus – for exit and entry – to speed up wait times at bus stops.

On air quality, and as acknowledged above, I would suggest that although our early data shows that air pollution has increased on some external/boundary roads (e.g. Church Road, Troopers Hill Road), that we need to wait for a clearer picture as to whether this is a trend across an annual period. At the end of the day, Church Road is an arterial road and so measures to reduce traffic there (even further than this scheme has) rely on less politically palatable measures such as road pricing or congestion charging, which aren’t on the cards at present. I would encourage everyone to read Appendix 1 of the Monitoring Report (St Peter’s people-friendly streets pre-consultation monitoring report) which gets into the detail of how to assess air quality data. It’s also important to note that all monitoring sites were below the annual average legal target for NO2 of 40µg/m3 in 2024. This is also projected to be the case for all sites in 2025 if the indicative percentage change is applied to 2024 data.

On emergency service response times, this is perhaps the most concerning aspect of the data especially in an area with a number of tower blocks, and the associated fears, and we’re taking it very seriously. Although average times have not increased substantially, our number one priority is to keep residents safe and ensure the emergency services have good access to all neighbourhoods, I believe that is the case in the majority of cases, but it’s important to acknowledge that this can improve. We are working closely with the fire service to make necessary changes, such as replacing some planters and bollards with cameras.

The large increase in traffic volume on Great Western Lane is regrettable, but I hope it is quite easy to solve. The proposed changes account for our response to this – completely removing the bus gate on Marsh Lane and moving the bus gate on Avonvale Road/Marsh Lane junction to a position to allow through-traffic to turn left into Avonvale Road from Marsh Lane (north-bound). This ensures the traffic will largely stay on the “new” boundary roads of Marsh Lane and Avonvale Road, and this increased in traffic will hopefully support the businesses on Avonvale Road and Marsh Lane. For any permanent scheme, I would advocate for a modal filter somewhere in the maze of streets to the immediate west of Marsh Lane, to ensure traffic does not use this area as a cut-through, but let’s see how this change goes and then reassess.

Finally, I would also note that there is one positive piece of data from the St Patrick’s Primary School air quality monitor, where there has been a 1% drop in average NO2 levels. While this is not statistically significant (so could be read as “no change”) and needs to be assessed within a wider time period for air quality data to be useful, I hope this initial reading reassures parents and residents of Blackswarth Road that air quality here has not worsened. I am also keen to ensure we have a strong “Park and Stride” initiative for parents and guardians of this school to ease parking pressures on Blackswarth Road and nearby streets.